Thermal power will still be the main power source for a long time, and the cost of thermal power still has advantages. The large fire power unit has many advantages, such as low cost, high efficiency and strong stability.
Electricity consumption keeps booming
With economic growth, electric energy substitution and popularization of new energy vehicles, the power consumption driven by the troika has increased steadily.
Economic growth is the first driving force of electricity consumption growth: the linear fitting of historical data from 1991 to 2016 shows that every 100 million yuan increase in constant price GDP will increase the power generation by about 08 million kwh. However, the acceleration of electric energy substitution and the popularization of new energy vehicles have changed the transportation energy consumption and contributed to the marginal increment of electric power consumption.
Combined with the inventory cycle, real estate cycle and credit cycle in the past three years, the current to 2018 will be in a downward cycle.
Based on the prediction of the overall macroeconomic trend and the subsequent GDP growth rate, we predict that the traditional power generation will maintain a relatively high growth rate: during the 13th Five Year Plan period, it is expected to be maintained at about 6%, and during the 14th Five Year Plan period, it will be maintained at about 5.5%.
At the same time, electric energy substitution has been advancing steadily, contributing to the increase of electricity demand. The national development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to realize that the proportion of electric energy in terminal energy consumption will reach about 27% by 2020, and the 13th five year plan of electric power will be further clarified. By 2020, electric energy will replace the newly added electricity consumption by about 4500 kwh. In the first half of 2017, 71.7 billion kwh of alternative electricity has been completed, and 150 billion kwh of alternative electricity can be expected in the whole year. Based on the completion rate of electric energy substitution in 2017, it is estimated that the replacement electricity will increase by about 100 billion kwh per year from 2017 to 2020, and the CAGR will reach 44%; due to the high popularity of power substitution during the 13th Five Year Plan period, the incremental space of the 14th five year plan will be reduced.
The new energy vehicle market was officially launched in 2015, with broad development space in the next decade.
Based on the assumption of the growth of new energy vehicles and the annual electricity consumption, it is estimated that the new energy vehicles will consume about 10 billion kwh annually from 2017 to 2020, and the annual electricity consumption will reach 40 billion kwh in 2020. It is estimated that the average annual growth rate of electricity consumption of new energy vehicles in the 14th five year plan will reach 36%, and the annual power consumption will exceed 130 billion kwh by 2025, and the follow-up power demand of new energy vehicles will continue to release.
From 2017 to 2020, electric energy substitution has been steadily promoted, and the promotion of new energy vehicles has been accelerated. The two jointly drive the growth rate of national power generation to increase year by year. In 2017, the growth rate of national power generation is expected to be 6.2%, reaching 7.1% in 2020. It is expected that the growth rate of power generation will gradually decline during the 14th Five Year Plan period, but it will still be higher than 5%.
The position of water thermal power supply is stable
During the "Twelfth Five Year Plan" period, large-scale hydropower projects were put into operation, and the installed capacity realized a leap forward growth. However, due to the limitation of hydropower development resources and ecological environment protection, the hydropower increment in the 13th five year plan has dropped significantly. It is estimated that the new installed capacity of conventional hydropower will be 1000, 570, 454 and 14.35 million KW per year from 2017 to 2020.
Combined with the forecast of conventional hydropower and pumped storage capacity, we believe that by 2020, China's conventional hydropower installed capacity will reach 340 million KW, and pumped storage installed capacity will be 40 million KW. The overall installed capacity will increase steadily and the growth rate will drop.
There is still room for growth of hydropower during the 14th Five Year Plan period. Considering the reduction of available basins, we maintain a neutral estimate for the newly added hydropower capacity.
By the end of 2016, China had 35 nuclear power units in operation, with a total installed capacity of 33.63 million KW.
The number of nuclear power utilization hours in China remained above 7700 hours in 2014 and before. In 2015-2016, the growth of power demand slowed down and the excess installed power generation led to the decrease of nuclear power utilization hours. From January to September 2017, the number of nuclear power utilization hours was 5379 hours, an increase of 144 hours on a year-on-year basis. Due to the recovery of China's electricity demand, the slowdown of installed capacity growth and the active participation of nuclear power in market-oriented electricity trading, it is expected that the utilization hours will continue to rise in the next few years.
During the 13th Five Year Plan period, about 30 million kw of nuclear power will be put into operation in China. By 2020, China's nuclear power installed capacity will reach 58 million KW. At present, the speed of the nuclear power plant will reach 48 million KW, which is expected to be installed in 2020. During the period of the 13th five year plan for power development, more than 30 million kw of nuclear power will be started. According to the current project approval and start-up progress, it is conservatively estimated that less than 20 million KW nuclear power units can be put into operation during the "14th five year plan".
The total installed capacity of wind power increased from 30GW in 2015 to the end of 2015. The 13th five year plan for power development: by 2020, the installed capacity of wind power in China will reach more than 210gw; as of September 2017, the installed capacity of wind power has reached 157gw, and it is estimated that the installed capacity of wind power will reach 230gw in 2020, exceeding the planning standard.
The rush to install in 2015 caused serious wind curtailment and power rationing. In addition, the market was worried about the issuance of wind power subsidies. In 2016 and 2017, the wind power installed capacity was less put into production, and it is expected that the growth rate of wind power installation will resume in 2018. After the realization of the affordable Internet access, the installed capacity growth is expected to increase, and the current forecast is cautious.
Photovoltaic power station is mainly divided into centralized photovoltaic power station and distributed photovoltaic power station. Centralized PV has long been the main force of domestic PV installation, and distributed PV installation started to break out in 2017. By the end of 2016, the installed capacity of domestic centralized photovoltaic power station reached 67.1 million KW, and the installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic power station was 10.32 million KW. Centralized photovoltaic power station was the main installed capacity of domestic photovoltaic power station. The cost of distributed photovoltaic continues to decline, and the economy of the user side is highlighted.
During the 12th Five Year Plan period, 98 million kw of wind power was added, and the newly installed capacity was concentrated in the "three north areas". The low local consumption capacity and the lack of supporting external power transmission channels led to high wind abandonment rate. In 2016, the total wind curtailment rate of five northwest provinces (except Tibet) reached 33.34%. During the 13th Five Year Plan period, many measures have been taken to improve the wind abandonment rate. The State Grid Corporation of China plans to control the wind abandonment rate within 5% by 2020.
Benefiting from the continuous improvement of wind power curtailment, it is expected that the utilization hours of wind power will rise slightly before 2021.
In 2016, the utilization hours of thermal power reached a record low, and the coal-fired electricity installed capacity surplus needed to be alleviated. 16 ministries and commissions jointly issued a document. During the "13th five year plan" period, the construction of 150 million KW coal-fired power and over 20 million kw of backward production capacity were eliminated. The 13th five year plan of electric power pointed out that by 2020, the installed capacity of coal and electricity should be controlled within 1.1 billion kw, accounting for 55%.
By 2020, the total capacity of coal installed power will drop by 0.56-2.5 billion kw per year, which is expected to be controlled in 2020.
Considering that some projects suspended or postponed during the 13th Five Year Plan period are put into operation in the 14th Five Year Plan period, we judge that the production will usher in a small peak in 2021 and 2022, and the new capacity will be stable at 30 million kW in the next few years.
According to the 13th five year plan, the installed capacity of gas-fired power generation will reach 110 million kW in 2020, and the average annual growth rate is predicted to be 10% - 11%; in 2025, the installed capacity of gas power will reach 177 million KW.
The status of thermal power as the main power source remains unchanged, benefiting from the warming of electricity demand and steady growth of power generation. During the 13th Five Year Plan period, the average annual growth rate of thermal power generation is about 6%. In 2020, the thermal power generation is expected to reach 5500 billion kwh. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the average annual growth rate of thermal power generation is about 5.2%. In 2025, the thermal power generation will exceed 700 billion kwh.
The growth of power generation and installed capacity slowed down, and the utilization hours of thermal power increased year by year. It is estimated that from 2018 to 2020, the annual average utilization hours of thermal power will increase by more than 100 hours, and the growth rate of utilization hours in the "14th five year plan" will slow down, but still maintain the upward trend. In 2025, the utilization hours of thermal power will return to more than 4800 hours.
Thermal power cost still has advantages
In 2016, the average benchmark price of coal power was 0.3644 yuan / kWh. The average benchmark price of coal power is basically equivalent to that of hydropower, slightly lower than that of nuclear power, and has obvious price advantages over gas power, wind power and photovoltaic power generation.
The large fire power unit has many advantages, such as low cost, high efficiency and strong stability.
With reference to the coal electricity linkage formula, it is estimated that the increase range of coal electricity price in China is 0.73-2.29 Fen / degree.
It is expected that the increase of on grid electricity price caused by coal electricity linkage will not be transmitted to the terminal sales price, and the part of coal electricity price increase may be absorbed by the intermediate link.
Assuming that the fuel cost accounts for 64% of the thermal power generation cost, the cost range of coal-fired power generation under different coal prices and power supply coal consumption scenarios is about 0.26-0.33 yuan / kWh. More than 50% of the listed companies, such as the five major power generation companies, account for more than 600000 kW coal-fired units, which have cost competitive advantages.
In the "opinions on comprehensively deepening the reform of price mechanism" issued by the national development and Reform Commission, it is proposed that the linkage mechanism of coal and electricity will be improved; the current linkage mechanism of coal and electricity only considers the linkage between coal and electricity. An effective long-term mechanism is conducive to solve the problem of long-term profit stability of power enterprises, which may be based on a series of reforms, such as the reform of power supply side, the integration of coal and electricity, and the reform of electricity marketization.
Shenhua Group and Guodian group are reorganized into national energy investment group, whose coal and power assets account for 15% of the total national output. Coal power joint venture is expected to stabilize the profitability of thermal power assets within the group.
Characteristics of high dividend maintenance bonds for hydropower and nuclear power
In the long run, the scale of new projects under construction of hydropower enterprises is reduced, the capital expenditure is expected to decrease, and the cash return period is expected to maintain a high proportion of dividends.
With the increase of the market share of electricity, the average on grid price of hydropower shows a downward trend; the upward trend of thermal power price in the second half of the year is expected to provide strong support for hydropower price.
Recommendation of hydropower project: Changjiang Power, Hubei energy, Guiguan power, Huaneng hydropower.
China's nuclear power is operating 17 units with an installed capacity of 14.34 million KW and 8 units under construction with a total installed capacity of 9.288 million KW. During the 13th Five Year Plan period, the asset scale has 64% growth space, with an average annual growth rate of about 20%.
Double growth of new energy equipment and operation
In the first three quarters of 2017, the wind and light abandonment rate decreased by 6.7% and 3.8% respectively in the first three quarters of 2017, National Energy Administration The "implementation plan for solving the problem of abandoned water, wind and light" was printed and distributed to promote the solution of landscape absorption.
Wind power and photovoltaic installed capacity increased significantly. From January to September, the newly added grid connected capacity of wind power in China was 9.7 million KW, with the cumulative capacity increasing by 13% on a year-on-year basis; the newly added photovoltaic installed capacity was 38 million KW, 46% higher than that at the end of 2016, of which the distributed power station increased by 400%.
From the perspective of new installed capacity layout, the trend of photovoltaic transfer from Northwest China to central and eastern China is more obvious. Distributed photovoltaic can be absorbed locally, and the profitability is expected to be further enhanced.
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