1、 As the negative effects of the financial crisis continue to weaken, governments have more space to deal with the long-term problems
From the global financial crisis in 2008-2009 to the European sovereign debt crisis in 2010-2012, and then to the global commodity price adjustment in 2014-2016, the global economic development has encountered a series of economic crises and negative shocks in the past decade. Now, with the gradual weakening of the impact of these events, the trend of global economic growth has been stabilized, and some long-term problems affecting economic, social, environmental and sustainable development are ushering in a period of major opportunities that are expected to be solved.
In 2017, the global economic growth rate reached 3%, significantly higher than that of 2.4% in 2016, which is also the highest growth rate since 2011. In 2017, about two-thirds of the world's economic growth was higher than last year. It is expected that the global economic growth rate will be stable at about 3.0% from 2018 to 2019.
Although East Asia and South Asia are the most economically dynamic regions in the world, the accelerated growth of global GDP mainly comes from several developed economies. In addition, the economies of Argentina, Brazil, Nigeria and Russia have also improved periodically and started to come out of recession, contributing one third of the global economic growth between 2016 and 2017. Economic growth has not yet recovered in many countries and regions of the world. The economic prospects of many commodity exporting countries remain challenging, highlighting the vulnerability of countries that rely too much on natural resources in the business cycle.
2、 The investment environment has improved, but policy uncertainty and the risk of rising debt may hinder the general recovery of investment
As the global macroeconomic outlook tends to be stable, the overall global investment environment has improved: the financing cost is generally low, and the risk premium is declining; the increase of cross-border loans, especially the credit growth between developed and developing countries, has promoted the flow of capital to emerging markets. In addition, within some of the larger economies, the economic environment has gradually improved and productive investment has recovered moderately.
The global investment is still in a relatively low starting point in the past two years due to the relatively weak global investment growth. In order to achieve stronger growth and accelerate the realization of sustainable development goals, more powerful and extensive investment rebound is needed. In this process, trade policy uncertainty, the main Central Bank The uncertainty brought about by the adjustment of the balance sheet, the risk of rising debt and the long-term fiscal fragility may bring resistance to this round of investment recovery.
3、 Accelerating economic growth needs to take into account environmental protection
At the same time, the global economic growth is accelerating. The impact of adverse climate is more and more significant, which shows the urgency of dealing with climate change and containing environmental deterioration. Although the level of carbon emission, which is closely related to global energy consumption, remains unchanged from 2013 to 2016, with the increasing trend of GDP growth, the level of carbon emission may increase in the future.
4、 The transition from traditional energy to renewable energy is a gradual process
The transition from traditional energy to renewable energy is a gradual process. Renewable energy accounts for more than half of the new installed generation capacity, but renewable energy only accounts for 11% of the total global power generation. China is the largest renewable energy investor in the world. In 2016, renewable energy investment reached 78.3 billion US dollars, accounting for 32.4% of the global total. In the first three quarters of 2017, global investment in renewable and clean energy increased by 2% over the same period last year. Among them, seven large-scale wind power projects distributed in Australia, China, Germany, Mexico, the United Kingdom and the United States all cost US $600 million to US $4.5 billion, contributing to this growth rate. At the same time, many countries, especially in Africa, are still suffering from severe energy supply shortages. The rapid development of renewable energy has proved that the environment-friendly economy can release great potential through appropriate policies and investment.
5、 Economic prospects will continue to be affected by changes in trade policies, sudden deterioration of the financial environment and geopolitical tensions
Although the economic fragility caused by the global financial crisis has been improved, risks and uncertainties have emerged. Policy uncertainty is on the rise, and the prospects for world trade, development assistance, migration and climate issues remain unclear. These problems may affect the rate of recovery of investment and production worldwide. The increasing geopolitical tension may aggravate the policy tendency of unilateralism and isolationism.
For a long time, the global liquidity is abundant and the borrowing cost is low, which aggravates the rise of global debt level and financial imbalance, and also brings the depreciation risk of high asset prices. On the one hand, many developing country economies, especially those with open capital market systems, are still vulnerable to risk preference, disorderly tightening of global liquidity and even sudden capital withdrawal; On the other hand, the monetary policies issued by the central banks of developed economies are unprecedented, which makes the financial markets more difficult to predict and magnifies the risks caused by policy errors.
6、 Several judgments on China's economic situation in 2018
China accounted for more than 70% of global demand for nickel ore and iron ore in 2016. The decline in China's import demand for commodities may have an adverse impact on commodity exporters, especially metal exporters. Second, with the recovery of Global trade, the liquidity of bank funds has increased, and large-scale bank funds have flowed to emerging economies such as China, Mexico and Nigeria. Third, strong domestic demand and loose fiscal policy can keep China's economy growing steadily. At the same time, by stimulating export and investment demand, China can enhance enterprise confidence and improve infrastructure construction, so as to drive the global economic recovery, such as the construction of China Pakistan Economic Corridor project. For example, it is expected that China's financial reform will continue to focus on structural risks.
If China changes, the world will change
1、 Trend and forecast of global energy system
The global energy system is ushering in four major trends: the rapid development of clean energy technology and the continuous decline of costs; the increasing trend of energy electrification; the trend of combining energy service orientation with clean energy in China; the strong development of shale gas and shale oil in the United States, further consolidating the position of the United States as the world's largest oil and gas producer.
In the end use of all kinds of energy in the world, electricity will become more and more important, accounting for nearly a quarter. In many countries, renewable energy has become the lowest cost new generation energy, and its investment accounts for two-thirds of global power investment. Industrial demand will become the biggest growth point of the power industry. While the original energy consumption continues to grow, electricity is also increasingly used for heating and transportation. At present, although the growth rate of global energy demand is slowing down, the growth rate of total energy demand will still reach 30% from now to 2040. Among them, Asian developing countries account for 2 / 3 of global energy demand increment, and the rest of energy demand growth mainly comes from the Middle East, Africa and Latin America.
The structure of global energy investment will change with the change of energy pattern. From now to 2040, the cumulative energy investment will reach 60 trillion US dollars, of which the electric power investment accounts for nearly half. If the fields of environmental protection, active response to climate change and universal power services are combined, the cumulative investment will reach 69 trillion US dollars, including nearly two-thirds of which is significantly higher than the average level of 40% in recent years.
Electricity production is basically low-carbon. From now on to 2040, the demand for electricity will increase by 60%, but the emission of pollutants from global power generation will only increase by 5%. By 2040, power generation will mainly rely on renewable energy, accounting for more than 60%; in addition, nuclear power will account for 15%.
However, universal electricity services are still difficult to achieve. By 2030, there will still be about 675 million people without electricity, 90% of them in sub Saharan Africa, and 2.3 billion people will continue to rely on biofuels, coal or kerosene for cooking.
Power related policies are facing a series of challenges, such as: how to ensure adequate investment in power grid construction; how to ensure that the power projects invested and constructed meet the power generation technical structure required by the power system, so as to improve the flexibility of the power system. (with the increasing share of wind power and solar photovoltaic, the flexibility of power grid is becoming more and more important), how to use digital technology to improve the efficiency of power system and avoid potential problems and risks, etc. With more and more attention paid to air quality by national policies, the emission of all major pollutants in the world will decrease, but its impact on health is still serious. Although carbon dioxide emissions have been relatively stable recently, the total emissions will increase slightly by 2040.
2、 China changes, world changes
China's energy policy direction will largely determine the trend of global energy development, and lead the global energy structure to a faster transition to clean energy. China's clean energy development, technology export and foreign investment scale determine its pivotal role in the global energy low-carbon transformation and development. More than 40% of the newly installed solar energy and wind turbines in the world accounted for one-third of the world's newly installed solar energy and wind turbines.
China is entering a new stage of development, and energy policy now focuses more on electricity, natural gas and digital technology. China's energy demand growth slowed down significantly, from 8% in 2000 to 2012 to less than 2% since 2012. With the introduction of relevant laws and policies on energy conservation and efficiency improvement, the average annual growth rate of China's energy demand will be only 1% from now to 2040. Nevertheless, by 2040, China's per capita energy consumption will still exceed that of the EU.
To meet the growing demand for electricity, by 2040, China's power infrastructure will be increased by the same amount as the entire power system in the United States today. China will continue to lead the gradual development of the nuclear power industry. By 2030, China will surpass the United States and become the largest nuclear power producer.
By 2040, China's demand for natural gas will account for a quarter of the world's, and China is expected to import 280 billion cubic meters of natural gas, second only to the European Union, making China a key member of global natural gas trade. Around 2030, China will surpass the United States and become the world's largest oil consumer; by 2040, its net imports will reach 13 million barrels / day. By then, China will no longer be the main driver of global oil consumption growth, as India's energy demand will grow even more after 2025.
At present, China still dominates the international coal market. It is predicted that China's coal consumption has peaked in 2013 and will drop by nearly 15% by 2040. China's carbon dioxide emissions are expected to peak in 2030 - 9.2 billion tons, only slightly above current levels, and will begin to fall.
Economic Blue Book of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: expected to grow by 6.7% in 2018
GDP forecast in 2017 and main characteristics of current economic situation
Since 2017, China's economy has continued to stabilize and improve, and the national economy has shown a trend of stable operation, structural optimization, kinetic energy conversion, and improvement of quality and efficiency. The growth rate of fixed asset investment in the whole society fell slightly, the growth rate of consumption was generally stable, the growth rate of import and export increased significantly, and the income of residents increased steadily. It is estimated that China's economy will grow by about 6.8% in 2017, and the growth rate will pick up slightly compared with that of the previous year, achieving the growth target at the beginning of the year. Among them, the growth rate of the primary and secondary industries was stable, the tertiary industry made a significant contribution to the economic growth, and the proportion of added value continued to increase.
A new basis for China's economic growth has initially taken shape, and the turning point from decline to stability has emerged. The formation of a new foundation for economic growth: in terms of policies, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council scientifically analyzed and summarized the profound changes in the economic environment at home and abroad after the international financial crisis, and put forward the general keynote of seeking progress while maintaining stability. Since 2012, the macro-control has changed from strong stimulus to timely and moderate regulation; from flood irrigation to precise development; from investment to investment and consumption, it has increased efforts in ensuring employment, stabilizing income and promoting consumption; it has shifted from focusing on demand expansion to stabilizing demand and complementing structural adjustment, mode transformation and deepening reform. Practice has proved that the effect of macro-control has been significantly enhanced, and the sustainability of policies has been significantly increased. In terms of the market, the external economic environment is stabilizing, and the recovery trend of the world economy is becoming clear. Affected by this, China's export situation has begun to improve; the imbalance of urbanization is being actively resolved, and the positive factors supporting investment growth are increasing. What is particularly important is that under the joint action of macro-control and market, China's economic transformation and upgrading has made remarkable progress, and reform has achieved positive results. These factors together constitute the new foundation of economic growth and support the steady and good growth trend of the economy.
The influence of globalization and national strategy on China's economic development is gradually increasing. The influence of national strategy on China's economic development is increasing. The total amount of "one belt and road" international trade information released by countries along the belt and road in 2014 is more than 3 trillion yuan. China has invested more than 50 billion US dollars in countries along the belt and road.
Chinese enterprises have built 56 economic and trade cooperation zones in more than 20 countries, creating nearly $1.1 billion in tax revenue and 180000 jobs for the countries concerned. It can be seen that this reflects the guiding role of strategy. To grasp economic development, we need to consider and reflect the role of strategy.
Because economic globalization and economic liberalization are parallel, globalization promotes the level and capacity of global resource allocation and promotes the economic development of relevant countries to a new level. However, in the development of economic globalization, the countries that guide globalization may feel that globalization is more beneficial to other countries than to their own countries, and the benefit distribution of globalization has dynamic characteristics.
Developing countries are expected to participate in or enjoy the special benefits of globalization. It will be helpful for China to participate in global governance and contribute Chinese wisdom to the world by assessing the short-term and long-term impacts of China's participation in economic globalization, evaluating the shared results with the idea of "community of common destiny", and planning the national strategy for China's participation in economic globalization, including how to let more Chinese people enjoy the benefits of participating in economic globalization.
In addition, various signs show that the application of artificial intelligence is not limited to the economic field, but can penetrate into all fields of society. The positive effect of artificial intelligence will far exceed the three technological industrial revolutions in human society. In 2018, artificial intelligence may succeed in many fields, such as automatic driving, robot, large equipment manufacturing, medical treatment, education, culture and entertainment, and domestic service, so as to promote the faster growth of world economy and trade.
Foreign trade may enter a new stage of development. China's foreign trade development environment is expected to be further improved in 2018. From the internal cause analysis, as mentioned above, China's enterprises actively develop strategic emerging industries, product competitiveness is rapidly improving, in the future, more and more high value-added products will be exported, independent brand products will be more and more abundant, the quality of products will be better and better, and the grade will be constantly improved. From the analysis of external factors, the world economic growth situation in 2018 will maintain a good momentum.
Digital economy has become an important force to solve the main social contradictions in the new era. With the rapid development of China's Internet for more than 20 years, especially the rapid development of mobile Internet in recent five years, the total amount of China's digital economy reached 22.6 trillion yuan in 2016, accounting for more than 30% of GDP. At the same time, China has the largest number of Internet users and the largest Internet market in the world. Among the world's top ten Internet companies, China occupies four seats. Three of China's "four new inventions" that affect the world are related to the Internet. All these remarkable achievements have made the Internet confident, qualified and capable to become an important force to solve the major social contradictions in China in the new era.
Digital economy has natural advantages in meeting people's needs for a better life. From the economic point of view, the Internet improves the efficiency of economic development, promotes the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, and makes the economic development achievements shared by more people; from the political point of view, the Internet builds an invisible bridge for the people and government departments, and improves the political participation of the people; From the cultural point of view, the Internet has opened up the cultural industry chain, promoted the overall upgrading of cultural industry formats, and the network culture market has become increasingly prosperous; from the perspective of life, the Internet has given birth to business service modes such as mobile payment, Didi, bike sharing, o2o, which bring convenience to people in all aspects of clothing, food, housing and transportation, and improve people's quality of life; From a social point of view, the Internet has increasingly become the "stabilizer" of social development. On the one hand, cyberspace has increasingly become an important platform for people to work, study, live and play. The average Chinese "online" time is about 3 hours a day. On the other hand, the Internet has absorbed a large number of social employment.
Digital economy can creatively solve some problems of unbalanced and insufficient development. Science and technology and innovation are important means to solve the unbalanced and inadequate development. As the most active, widely used and most radiation driving technology innovation field, network information technology can creatively solve some problems of unbalanced and insufficient development. Taking poverty alleviation as an example, if the traditional poverty alleviation model lacks sustainable industrial support, it is easy to return to poverty. Internet has produced some new ideas and creatively solved some problems. In recent years, some poverty-stricken areas have carried out e-commerce poverty alleviation. Alibaba, Tencent, Jingdong, Suning and other e-commerce giants have entered poor villages to help poor areas build e-commerce platforms and connect rural to urban logistics systems. Poor households can directly use the network platform to sell local high-quality local products and broaden farmers' income channels. Due to the low entry threshold of e-commerce poverty alleviation mode, many rural poor people have the opportunity to enter the labor market to achieve stable employment.
Forecast of economic trend in 2018
According to the forecast of China's Quarterly Macroeconomic Model, China's GDP growth rate in 2018 will be 6.7%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage point compared with the previous year. From the perspective of qualitative analysis, the forecast results are consistent with the reality of supply side and demand side.
From the demand side point of view, although the developed countries and regions represented by the United States, Europe and Japan continue to improve their economy and increase their external demand, the United States' "scale reduction and interest rate increase" combined with its "tax reduction and burden reduction" industrial policy may further promote the continuous return of capital and manufacturing industry, thus tightening the external financing conditions of emerging economies, increasing the cost of investment and use, and the cost of consumption opportunity The rise may even lead to the bursting of asset bubbles in some regions, which will lead to the increase of bad debts of banks and the shrinking of residents' wealth. With the continuous recovery and expansion of the U.S. manufacturing industry, its external demand will continue to decrease, and form a new international market supply, which will intensify the international market competition. In addition, due to the higher base factor in 2017, the growth rate of China's foreign demand will drop in 2018. From the perspective of domestic demand, although the development of new consumption formats with "Internet +" as the core feature is booming, the investment in high-tech manufacturing and high-tech service industries is developing rapidly, and the industrial upgrading is speeding up. Generally speaking, the transformation of new and old kinetic energy can not be achieved overnight. Due to factors such as scale and time lag, the new development momentum can not completely offset the negative effects caused by structural adjustment in the short term The third and fourth tier cities are lack of strong industrial support, and with the tightening of credit policies, real estate sales and investment will gradually fall down, while the level of government debt and deficit will limit the role of infrastructure investment, so that the pulling effect of investment in 2018 may be weakened. In addition, because the problem of national income distribution has not been effectively solved, the income distribution of government, enterprises and residents is still unbalanced, and the Gini coefficient is still high, which limits the substantial increase of residents' consumption level.
From the perspective of economic growth, the main determinants include economic growth and total productivity. Since China's labor supply has entered the inflection point in 2012, the growth rate of total factor productivity has been maintained at a low level in recent years, and the growth rate of capital stock has also declined along with the decline of the growth rate of fixed assets investment. Due to the above factors, it is difficult to change significantly in the short term, which means that the potential growth rate of China's GDP will still decline slightly in an appropriate range in 2018.
Positive factors of economic growth in 2018
First, a new round of opening-up (Shanghai Free Trade Zone, new mode of foreign investment, structural reform) and the active promotion of the "belt and road" construction will stabilize and stimulate China's external demand; second, China's employment scale will continue to expand, and the unemployment rate will remain at the lowest level since 2013, which will play a key role in social stability and income growth; Third, social stability, steady growth of residents' income, stable consumer expectations, rapid development of new forms of consumption and continuous improvement of consumption quality; Fourth, although the tail raising factor in 2018 will become an important force to promote the rise of CPI, and the upstream cost pressure is increasing, the current supply is sufficient, the cost transmission is relatively slow, and the international supply and demand of crude oil will tend to be balanced, the crude oil price will be basically stable, and the import effect on China will be limited, so that the overall price level of China will remain stable.
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